AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 2 1/2 to 3 cents higher in the front months on Tuesday, after USDA showed little improvement in crop conditions in Monday’s report. Forecasts for this week are showing wet weather across most of the Corn Belt. The USDA Crop Progress report indicated that 4% of the corn crop was silking, behind the average and last year’s 5%. Most states were even with or behind their average progress for silking. Condition ratings were steady across the board from last week, with the Brugler500 rating at 369. Individual state ratings show most of the Corn Belt higher, with NE, MN and the Dakotas all presenting lower conditions.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.61 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.70 1/4, up 3 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.79 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.89 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 5 3/4 to 6 1/2 cents in the green at midday. July 17 soy meal is 50 cents higher with soy oil up 49 points in the front month. US soybean emergence is even with last year at 94%, and ahead of the average of 91%. This week’s report showed that 9% of the crop was blooming as of Sunday, ahead of the average at 7% and last year’s 8%. Condition ratings for this last week dropped 1% good/excellent to 66%, as the Brugler500 index is now at 366, down 2 points from last week.NE, IN, and most of the North had lower conditions, with MO, IL, OH and most southern states, minus AR and LA, slightly higher. The Stats Canada report showing Canadian soybean and canola acreage will be released this Thursday.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.13 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.17 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.19, up 6 1/2 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.19 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $294.60, up $0.50

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $32.01, up $0.49

Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly higher at midday, as MPLS is once again the strongest, 11 to 16 cents higher in most contracts. KC and CBT are 2 to 5 1/2 cents in the green. The US winter wheat crop was 41% harvested as of Sunday, 1% behind last year but 2% ahead of the average. Most states, other than NE, MI, CO, and CA, were above their average. Conditions ratings were even with last week at 49% g/ex, as the Brugler500 index rose 2 points on higher excellent ratings. Most states were even with or better than the previous week, with SD 13 points lower and both NE and MI down 10 points. The spring wheat crop is 36% headed, ahead of the average of 35% but well behind last year’s 52%. SD is 27% ahead of last year, with ND even, as the other states are behind their respective averages. Condition ratings were down 1% to 40% good/ex, with a Brugler500 rating of 309 points. MT was the only state to show improvement. Straegie Grains lowered their production estimate for 2017 French wheat to 35.6 MMT from 37.2 MMT on reports of hot weather.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.54 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.58 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.79 3/4, up 16 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are posting losses of $1.675 to $2.525 on Turnaround Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures are also sharply lower, down $3.60 to $3.70 in the nearby contracts. Both Live and Feeder contracts have expanded limits today. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.25 on June 23 at $145.84. Wholesale beef prices were sharply lower in the Tuesday morning report, with choice boxes down $2.36 cents at $236.21. Select was $1.40 lower, with an average of $216.26. The Ch/Se spread is now down to $19.95. Estimated FI cattle slaughter for Monday was 117,000 head, 3,000 above last week and 6,000 greater than last year. With the FCE auction on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. CST, they are showing 2,554 head for sale, with 10 of the 19 lots from NE.

Jun 17 Cattle are at $119.800, down $1.675,

Aug 17 Cattle are at $115.750, down $2.525,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $112.975, down $2.300,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $145.750, down $3.700

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $145.175, down $3.725

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $143.600, down $3.600

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are mostly mixed with Aug, the only front month higher, up 25 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/23 was up another 45 cents to $90.62. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.23 in the morning report, with a weighted average of $102.58. All primal cuts were higher. The national base hog carcass price was 79 cents lower with a weighted average of $84.99 in the a.m. report. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 435,000 head on Monday, 11,000 more than the previous week and 9,000 head above last year. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report analysts are expecting all hog inventory on June 1 to be 3.3% larger than last June at 71.597 million head. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated at 1.5% higher at 6.069 million head, while kept for marketing are projected at 65.490 million head, up 3.5% over last year.

Jul 17 Hogs are at $86.825, down $0.200,

Aug 17 Hogs are at $78.925, up $0.250

Oct 17 Hogs are at $68.050, down $0.325

Cotton

Cotton futures are showing gains of 19 to 102 points today, with the help of a sharply lower US dollar, down 756 points. The Crop progress report showed planting 98% complete, with 34% of the crop squared, vs. 28% last year and the average of 30%. This week’s report indicated that 7% of the crop has set bolls compared to 6% last year and the average of 5%. Overall ratings dropped 4% g/e to 57%. The Brugler500 index is at 357, down 7 points from last week. The biggest loser for the week was OK, as ratings there dropped 26 points, with AL down 12. AZ ratings dropped 10 points with TX down 7. China sold 19,800 MT of cotton from state reserves on Tuesday, totaling 65.40% of the total 30,300 MT offered. The Cotlook A index for June 26 was 35 points higher at 82.95 cents/lb.

Jul 17 Cotton is at 74.37, up 69 points,

Oct 17 Cotton is at 70, up 102 points

Dec 17 Cotton is at 67.61, up 38 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 67.370, up 19 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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